Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to comply with a ceasefire demand from U.S. President Donald Trump, despite threats of harsh new sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil. According to sources close to the Kremlin, Putin still aims to fully capture four Ukrainian regions and views the current military momentum as a strategic advantage he cannot abandon. Trump’s ultimatum expires Friday and includes a threat of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil targeting top buyers China and India.
Talks between Russia and Ukraine have occurred three times since May, but insiders say they lack substance and mostly focus on humanitarian exchanges. The Kremlin insists it seeks a long-term peace, but its demands such as Ukrainian withdrawal from the occupied regions and limits on its military remain unacceptable to Kyiv. Trump has reportedly grown frustrated with Putin’s actions, calling Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian cities “disgusting,” despite previously praising the Russian leader.
See also: Putin Unmoved by Trump’s Ceasefire Ultimatum, Eyes Full Control of 4 Ukrainian Regions
Though sources say Putin privately worries about worsening U.S.-Russia relations and values his rapport with Trump, he is unwilling to halt the war solely under American pressure. Kremlin insiders believe that ending the conflict now, amid Russia’s slow but ongoing territorial gains, would be politically damaging. Russian forces have made modest gains in 2025, capturing around 5,000 square kilometers, and believe Ukraine’s defensive lines could collapse within months.
Despite facing heavy Western sanctions causing major financial losses, frozen assets, and declining foreign investment Russia’s war machine remains intact, largely supported by arms imports from North Korea and China. Trump’s threats are viewed in Moscow as serious but not necessarily credible, given his past record of changing course. Putin reportedly turned down a March offer from the U.S. that included sanctions relief and recognition of Russia’s hold on Crimea and occupied territories believing that ending the war would be more difficult politically than continuing it.
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