What We Know About the Israel-Iran Ceasefire

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran is officially in effect, despite ongoing violations and heightened tensions. The truce, announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump, came hours after Iran launched a missile strike on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East.

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Ceasefire Announcement Amid Escalation

On Monday, Trump declared via his Truth Social platform that both Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.

“The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!” he posted.

According to Trump, the ceasefire was to roll out in phases:

1. Iran was to begin the ceasefire at 04:00 GMT on Tuesday.

2. Israel would follow 12 hours later at 16:00 GMT.

After an additional 12 hours, the ceasefire would be considered fully in effect, ending what he termed the “Twelve Day War.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had accepted the proposal, declaring that all strategic objectives had been achieved. Iranian state media also reported Tehran’s agreement to the truce, though with clear warnings about future violations.

The Qatar Missile Attack: A Trigger Point

Monday night’s Iranian missile barrage on Al Udeid Air Base marked a major escalation. Residents across Doha reported flares and loud explosions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility, stating the strike was retaliation for an earlier U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran defended its actions under Article 51 of the UN Charter, citing self-defense. While Tehran insisted the strike was not aimed at Qatar itself, the attack prompted a swift condemnation from Doha.

Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, described the strike as “unacceptable,” emphasizing that Qatar had been working to de-escalate the situation. He confirmed that 18 of 19 missiles were intercepted, with no reported casualties. Qatar also summoned Iran’s ambassador to formally protest the incident.

Reactions from Israel and Iran

Israel responded to the attack with airstrikes on targets in Tehran, accusing Iran of breaching the ceasefire. Iran denied launching further missiles at Israel, calling the allegations baseless.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant ordered “intense strikes” on regime targets in the Iranian capital, while Trump publicly urged restraint:

“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION,” Trump wrote. “BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”

In a follow-up post, Trump insisted the ceasefire remained intact and urged Israeli pilots to stand down.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council affirmed its conditional support for the ceasefire, warning that its forces remained on high alert.

“Our hands are on the trigger,” said a council spokesperson, warning of a “decisive response” to any Israeli aggression.

Qatar’s Diplomatic Role

Despite being caught in the crossfire, Qatar has emerged as a key mediator. Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed confirmed that Washington had asked Doha to engage Tehran and gauge its willingness for de-escalation. Trump acknowledged Qatar’s role in brokering the truce, calling it a “diplomatic victory.”

Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem, reporting from Tehran, said Qatar’s involvement was instrumental in halting the conflict:

“Despite the attack on Al Udeid, Qatar helped mediate the ceasefire – another testament to its growing diplomatic influence in the region.”

READ ALSO: Iran Launches Missile Attack on US Military Base in Qatar

Violence on the Ground Persists

Hours after the ceasefire was scheduled to take full effect, an Iranian missile reportedly struck a residential building in Beersheba, Israel, killing at least four people. Israel claimed to have intercepted two additional ballistic missiles on Tuesday.

Iran denied launching any new attacks. Nonetheless, tensions remain high, and retaliatory measures continue despite the ceasefire framework.

Trump’s Track Record on Ceasefires

This latest development follows a pattern of Trump announcing ceasefire deals some of which have unraveled quickly:

1. India-Pakistan: Trump claimed credit for a ceasefire in May following days of cross-border shelling. However, both nations accused each other of violations shortly after his announcement.

2. Israel-Gaza: A Trump-brokered ceasefire was announced on January 15. By March 18, Netanyahu resumed attacks on Gaza, resulting in thousands of casualties. Trump backed the decision.

Since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October 2023, more than 56,000 Palestinians have been killed. A full blockade beginning in March caused widespread starvation, though limited UN-led aid resumed in May. Rights groups have criticized the delivery system, alleging that aid centres have become “human slaughterhouses.” On Monday, at least 43 Palestinians seeking food were killed by Israeli strikes.

3. Russia-Ukraine: Trump vowed to end the war on his first day if re-elected. While some progress was made such as a temporary Russian halt on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and a Black Sea deal the broader ceasefire talks have stalled.

While both Israel and Iran claim to support the ceasefire, incidents on the ground tell a different story. With continued missile exchanges, conflicting narratives, and deep mistrust, the sustainability of this truce remains uncertain.

Qatar’s role as a mediator may be pivotal in maintaining dialogue. Whether Trump’s intervention will bring lasting peace or merely a pause in hostilities remains to be seen.