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France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou is fighting for his political survival after calling a vote of confidence in parliament over his plan to cut €44bn from the national budget. Bayrou, who has led a minority government since December, warned that France faced a “decisive moment” with a growing budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP. He argued that failing to act would be more dangerous than pushing through tough measures. The cuts include slashing public spending and even scrapping two national holidays.
The confidence vote is set for 8 September, just two days after nationwide protests are expected under the “Let’s block everything” movement, a campaign that began online but has since gained union and far-left backing. The announcement immediately rattled markets, with the CAC-40 stock index falling more than 3% across Monday and Tuesday. Finance Minister Eric Lombard stressed the need to find a recovery plan for 2026, insisting that spending reductions are necessary to restore economic stability.
However, Bayrou’s gamble has left him increasingly isolated. Members of his own cabinet admitted they were given little warning before he made the announcement. While some praised his courage, many admit the chances of him surviving the vote look slim.
Bayrou’s problem is simple: he has no majority in the National Assembly and all major opposition parties have declared they will not support him. On the far right, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally said Bayrou had already signed “the end of his government” and demanded parliament be dissolved to allow fresh elections. On the left, the Socialists, Greens, Communists and France Unbowed each confirmed they would vote against him. Socialist leader Olivier Faure said it was “unthinkable” to give Bayrou confidence, blaming him for creating instability by pushing a budget that “no one supports.”
Without backing from either side of the political spectrum, Bayrou’s chances of winning the 8 September vote are extremely low. If he falls, President Emmanuel Macron will face difficult choices: either keep Bayrou on as caretaker prime minister, appoint a new one, or call fresh parliamentary elections. Macron, who still has a presidential term until 2027, has ruled out resignation, but his snap election in 2024 left France with a fragmented parliament and a fragile centrist-Republican minority.
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The political showdown comes at a time of deep public anger over austerity. With protests building and financial markets jittery, France could soon face another round of political turmoil.
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