Bolivia’s Ruling Party Faces Worst Defeat in Years as Runoff Looms

 

Bolivia’s presidential election has left the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party facing its worst defeat in a generation. Early results from the electoral tribunal showed centrist senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party leading with 32.18% of the vote. MAS candidate Eduardo del Castillo won just 3.16%, signaling a collapse for the party once led by former president Evo Morales. Since no candidate passed the 40% threshold required to win outright, a runoff election is scheduled for October 19. Full results will be confirmed within seven days.

Paz’s rise shocked political analysts who expected him to trail behind Jorge Quiroga and businessman Samuel Doria Medina of the Unidad Alliance coalition. Medina has already conceded defeat and pledged to back Paz in a runoff. Morales, barred from running, had urged voters to boycott the race, but his calls were largely ignored. Election observers said voting was calm with no major disruptions, though minor incidents occurred in Morales’ stronghold of Cochabamba. Turnout was steady across the country. With eight contenders splitting votes, the election marked a crucial moment in Bolivia’s political landscape, opening space for centrist and right-leaning groups after nearly twenty years of MAS dominance.

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The main issue driving voters in Bolivia’s election was the fragile economy. Inflation has soared to a four-decade high, reaching 23% in June compared to 12% in January. Fuel shortages and a lack of U.S. dollars have left citizens struggling, with some turning to cryptocurrencies as an alternative. Economist Roger Lopez warned that Bolivia is “on the brink” and must pay obligations in dollars it no longer has. The crisis has worsened living conditions, especially for those in the informal economy, and many voters blamed MAS for the downturn.

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Rodrigo Paz has promised reforms through a new “50-50 model” that would decentralize the economy by allowing regional governments to control half of public funds. His message resonated with many former MAS voters, who now say they want change and new leadership. Quiroga, another challenger, has campaigned on deep spending cuts and a break from alliances with leftist governments in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. While his call for “radical change” appeals to some, early results show Paz is the strongest contender. The election outcome has opened the possibility of Bolivia shifting away from its long-standing leftist path and embracing a centrist or right-leaning government for the first time in two decades.