Stavropol boosts Russian wheat hopes despite Rostov drought

 

Russia's wheat production outlook is mixed in 2025, with Stavropol set for a record harvest while Rostov faces a second consecutive year of drought. As two of Russia's major wheat-producing regions, their diverging conditions are significant for the global grain market. Rostov, traditionally the country's wheat powerhouse, is grappling with dry weather that began last autumn. Governor Yuri Slyusar expects a 20 percent decline in the region's wheat output from 10.1 million tons last year, the lowest since 2015. An agricultural emergency has been declared in 10 districts to trigger state support for farmers.

Maxim Zolotaryov, an agronomist in Rostov's Chertkov district, describes the situation as dire. After already enduring frost damage in spring, crops are now being devastated by continuing drought. Yields in Chertkov dropped by 61 percent last year to just 1.7 tons per hectare, about half the average in the United States. Despite trying other crops, many farmers in Rostov have returned to wheat due to its steady export demand.

In contrast, Stavropol, located just south of Rostov, has benefited from favorable conditions, with 30 percent more rainfall than usual. Analysts expect the region to overtake Rostov in wheat output this year. With Russia forecasting a national wheat harvest of 90 million tons, Stavropol’s contribution is crucial. The region harvested 7.8 million tons in 2024 and would need to surpass 8 million to top Rostov. Officials say weather improvement may be partly due to cloud seeding using silver iodide.

While southern regions like Stavropol lead in wheat production, climate change is expanding Russia’s agricultural potential northward. The industrial Perm region near the Ural Mountains saw a 30 percent jump in wheat output in 2024, driven by warmer temperatures and a tripling of fertilizer supply over the last decade. Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin noted that Russia’s average temperature is expected to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1976 and 2030. This warming trend is opening up previously unusable land in the north and east for cultivation, aligning with Russia’s long-term grain strategy to maintain output in the south while expanding to new regions.

However, farmers across Russia are facing increasing financial and operational challenges. High interest rates, now at their highest since the early 2000s, have made borrowing for new equipment very costly. Sanctions imposed by the West have also restricted access to modern agricultural machinery and replacement parts. According to Alexei Shantaliy, a farming official in Chertkov, farmers are struggling to invest in necessary tools, forcing them to weigh every expense carefully.

Input costs such as fuel and fertilizers have also risen sharply. As a result, some farmers are reducing usage to save money, but this leads to lower yields. Director of Luch farm, Alexander Plakhov, says the goal now is simply to break even.

Compounding these issues is the urgent need for reliable, high-performance machinery. In a climate with unpredictable rain and short planting windows, quick responses are essential. Yet, aging and poorly maintained equipment often delays sowing and harvesting. Despite efforts to diversify, wheat remains the preferred crop because of its secure export market, making it both a burden and a lifeline for many Russian farmers.

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