Factbox: What Might Happen in Israel's Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

 

Factbox: What Might Happen in Israel's Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Opposition party Yesh Atid has submitted a motion to dissolve the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) with a scheduled vote for June 11, amid mounting tensions within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition. Here are key insights into the process, potential outcomes, and scenarios:

Knesset Composition

- Total seats: 120

- Simple majority needed to pass dissolution: 61

- Current government majority: approximately 68 seats

- United Torah Judaism and Shas, ultra-Orthodox parties, collectively hold 18 seats

Legislative Procedure

- The motion faces four votes; a final majority of 61 is required to pass.

- If successful, this triggers early elections, which must be held within five months.

- The process could be quick or extend over months depending on parliamentary dynamics.

See also: Pressure Mounts on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as Opposition Moves to Dissolve Parliament

Opposition Strategy

- Yesh Atid will only push for dissolution if confident of securing the majority.

- They can also withdraw the motion before June 11 if they face difficulties.

Potential Scenarios

- Passage of the motion: Leads to early elections, possibly within months.

- Coalition fragmentation: Ultra-Orthodox parties might leave the government in protest against the coalition’s failure to pass an exemption law for ultra-Orthodox men, which might influence the vote.

- Coalition resilience: The coalition, with approximately 68 seats, could rally to block the motion.

- Alliances: If ultra-Orthodox parties align with opposition members, they could have enough votes to dissolve the parliament early—potentially a year ahead of schedule.

Implications

- If early elections are called, political and policy stability could be affected.

- The move reflects ongoing tensions over military service exemptions and broader political disagreements.