Ahead of Wednesday's UEFA Europa League final between Spurs & Man Utd, we identify 7 key elements that could be decisive in Bilbao.

 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐚 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 

Ahead of Wednesday's UEFA Europa League final between Spurs & Man Utd, we identify 7 key elements that could be decisive in Bilbao.

 From United's terrible record vs Spurs to questions around Tottenham's creativity, we've got it covered.

Fourth Time Lucky for United? Manchester United have lost to 12 different teams in 2024-25, but Tottenham have been a particular thorn in their side. Spurs have won all three encounters this season: 3-0 away and 1-0 at home in the Premier League, plus a 4-3 League Cup victory at home. Historically, Spurs have only beaten one team—Manchester City in 1992-93—four times in a single season, while Everton were the last to defeat United four times in one campaign, back in 1985-86. A fast start is crucial for United. In all three 2024-25 clashes, Spurs scored within the first 15 minutes. United haven’t led for a single moment across these games, with Spurs ahead for 226 of the 295 minutes played (90.2% of the time, including stoppage time). United have struggled to recover, managing just six come-from-behind wins in 58 games this season—four at Old Trafford and two against lower-ranked Southampton and Ipswich. However, Spurs are vulnerable. They’ve dropped 26 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, with only Brentford (52) losing more since Ange Postecoglou’s arrival in 2023-24. United have never gone seven games without beating Spurs or lost four straight to them. A win in Bilbao on Wednesday could break this streak, even if they must overcome their comeback struggles to do it.

Whoever Wins the Europa League Will Create History Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have endured historically poor Premier League seasons in 2024-25. Man Utd’s points tally, based on three points for a win, is set to be their lowest since at least 1973-74. A failure to defeat Aston Villa on the final day could see their worst total since 1930-31 (29 points). Spurs, with 38 points from 37 matches, face their second-worst league campaign ever, surpassed only by 1914-15 (36 points). They’ve also matched their record for most defeats in a season (25), equaling 1991-92. Entering the final Premier League matchday, United and Spurs languish in 16th and 17th places, respectively—the lowest positions possible without relegation. Had the three promoted Championship sides not struggled, one of these English giants might have faced the drop. Yet, a chance for redemption awaits. The Europa League final offers a European trophy and a Champions League spot for 2025-26. The winner will also make history as the lowest-ranked domestic league side to claim a major European trophy, surpassing the record held by West Ham (14th, 2022-23 Conference League) and Inter Milan (13th, 1993-94 UEFA Cup).

Where Will Tottenham’s Creativity Come From? Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham have had their struggles, but creating chances hasn’t been one of them. Despite a projected 17th-place finish in the Premier League, only four teams have outscored their 61 non-penalty goals, and just six have bettered their 55.3 non-penalty xG. However, heading into the Bilbao final, Spurs face a crisis: their top three advanced midfielders are sidelined by injury. James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, the squad’s leading creators with 78 and 50 open-play chances created across all competitions, are unavailable. Lucas Bergvall, though less prolific in final passes, has been vital in driving play through the middle in recent months, and his absence will sting. This is only the third time this season Spurs will miss all three, as seen in a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth in March and a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Friday. The likely midfield trio of Yves Bissouma, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Pape Sarr can shield the defense and retain possession but lack the vision to break down Manchester United’s backline. Spurs’ best hope may lie in transition, leveraging the speed of their front three, whoever starts. Right-back Pedro Porro, with nine assists this season, must push forward relentlessly. The return of captain Son Heung-min, who tops the squad in open-play assists (11, tied with Kulusevski) and xG assisted (9.5), is a major boost. Whether this will suffice could decide the final’s outcome.

Can United Be More Clinical in Front of Goal? European finals are often tight affairs. Last season’s Champions League final saw Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0, but the four prior finals were all 1-0 scorelines. In the Europa League, three of the last four finals went to penalties, while all three Conference League finals have been decided by a single goal. These matches hinge on fine margins, making clinical finishing vital. Data suggests Tottenham are better equipped than Manchester United to seize these moments. This season, the teams’ finishing stats tell contrasting stories. In the Premier League, Tottenham’s shot conversion rate of 12.8% ranks sixth, while United’s 8.4% is the second lowest, only above Southampton, one of the league’s historically weakest sides. The league average is 11.3%. Excluding own goals, Spurs have scored 60 goals from an xG of 57.7, overperforming by 2.3 goals, good for seventh in the league. United, however, have managed just 40 goals from an xG of 50.5, underperforming by 10.5—only Crystal Palace (-13.9) have been less clinical. Even factoring in Europa League games, where United have scored more freely, their xG differential remains negative (-7.9). Tottenham, meanwhile, continue to outperform expectations (+6.1).

Bruno Fernandes: The Europa League King Since joining Manchester United from Sporting CP five and a half years ago, Bruno Fernandes has become indispensable, with his influence growing each season. He’ll be pivotal to United’s hopes in this final. The Europa League is where Fernandes shines brightest. Since the competition’s rebrand in 2009, no player has dominated it quite like him. Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have outscored his 27 goals, but Fernandes tops the charts for assists (19) and total goal involvements (46). Only Dries Mertens, with 16 more games, has created more chances than Fernandes (185 vs. 158 overall; 129 vs. 110 from open play). In knockout stages, Fernandes is unmatched, contributing to 32 goals in 33 matches—19 goals (second most) and 13 assists (most)—while leading in chances created (94). Despite captaining United in the 2021 final loss to Villarreal, where he struggled and created no chances before scoring in the shootout, Fernandes is a proven big-game performer. He’ll aim to redeem himself in Wednesday’s final.

A Tale of Two (Erratic) Goalkeepers? André Onana and Guglielmo Vicario are nearing the end of their second Premier League seasons, each experiencing a rollercoaster of highs and lows since joining Manchester United and Tottenham, respectively. Onana’s time at United has been marred by frequent errors, with only Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen (six) surpassing his five mistakes leading to goals in all competitions during the 2024-25 season. His shot-stopping can be exceptional or erratic, and while he’s confident in his passing, his risky distribution often catches United’s shaky defenders off guard, amplifying his errors. Vicario, by contrast, has been steadier, with just one error across two seasons at Spurs—four fewer than Onana’s 2024-25 tally. Yet, he’s had his struggles, particularly last season, when he was repeatedly exposed at set-pieces, conceding goals and futilely appealing for fouls. His passing can also appear shaky, lacking conviction. Still, both keepers are undeniably talented. Vicario’s knack for game-changing saves has seen him prevent over four goals this season, ranking among the Premier League’s best for goals prevented. Onana, too, has the ability to swing matches, for better or worse. In Bilbao, their performances could prove decisive, either securing glory or costing their teams dearly.

Can Spurs’ ‘New’ Defence Stand Strong? Tottenham’s defence isn’t new in terms of players – the same first-choice back four and goalkeeper have been consistent throughout Postecoglou’s tenure – but it’s transformed in its newfound solidity. While their Premier League form has been shaky, with the defence seemingly disengaged for weeks, Spurs have looked remarkably robust in the Europa League knockout stages when Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, and Destiny Udogie start together in front of Vicario. Gone is the high-octane, all-out Angeball approach Postecoglou is known for, replaced by a more measured, defensively disciplined style (as explored in detail here). In their four quarter-final and semi-final matches, Spurs conceded just two goals, posting some of their best defensive stats of the season. Three of their top four xG-against performances across all competitions came in these games, including stifling Bodø/Glimt to chances worth just 0.26 xG and 0.43 xG over two legs, and limiting Eintracht Frankfurt to a mere 0.36 xG at home. With their preferred back five and a structure that shields the defence more effectively, Tottenham have become far tougher to breach.

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