Championship: Who needs what on the final day?

 

After nine months, 540 matches, and relentless drama, the Championship season boils down to a few crucial hours on Saturday.  

With all matches kicking off at 12:30 BST, the title, two play-off spots, and one relegation place remain undecided. Twelve teams half the division have everything to play for. 

Here’s a breakdown of the key permutations, starting from the relegation battle and moving to the top.

Title Race

Leeds United (97 points, +64 GD): Leeds will win the Championship title if they match Burnley’s result, unless both teams win and Burnley overcome a 13-goal difference margin (e.g., Burnley win by 14 goals more than Leeds). A win against relegated Plymouth Argyle guarantees the title. If Leeds draw and Burnley win, or Leeds lose and Burnley draw, Burnley take the title.

Burnley (97 points, +51 GD): Burnley must better Leeds’ result to win the title. A win against play-off chasing Millwall is essential, and they need Leeds to drop points (draw or lose against Plymouth). If Leeds lose, Burnley can afford a draw.

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Play-Off Race

Sheffield United (3rd) and Sunderland (4th) have secured play-off spots.

 Two spots remain, with five teams in contention:

Bristol City (5th, 67 points, +4 GD): A win against Preston North End guarantees a play-off spot. A draw or loss could be enough if Millwall and Blackburn fail to win, or if other results (e.g., Coventry vs. Middlesbrough) go their way.

Coventry City (6th, 66 points, +12 GD): A win against Middlesbrough secures a play-off spot. A draw could suffice if Millwall and Blackburn don’t both win, or if Bristol City lose. A loss likely ends their hopes, as Middlesbrough could overtake them.

Millwall (7th, 66 points, +8 GD): Millwall need to win against Burnley and hope Coventry or Bristol City slip up. Beating Burnley by a large margin could help overcome Coventry’s goal difference advantage, though Burnley’s strong defense (15 goals conceded all season) makes this tough.

Blackburn Rovers (8th, 65 points, +2 GD): Blackburn must win at Sheffield United and need two of Bristol City, Coventry, or Millwall to fail to win. Their inferior goal difference makes this a long shot.

Middlesbrough (9th, 64 punkty, +14 GD): Middlesbrough need to win at Coventry and hope both Millwall and Blackburn fail to win. Their superior goal difference could see them leap to 5th if Bristol City also lose. A draw won’t be enough.

Relegation Battle

Cardiff City are already relegated, and Plymouth Argyle are effectively down (needing a miracle: a big win over Leeds and a 14-goal swing over Luton). 

One relegation spot remains, with five teams at risk:

Hull City (22nd, 49 points, -10 GD): Hull occupy the final relegation spot. A win at Portsmouth guarantees survival, as they’d finish above Derby or Stoke. A draw could be enough if Luton or Preston lose. A loss means relegation unless other results (e.g., Luton, Preston, or Derby losing) save them.

Luton Town (21st, 50 points, -14 GD): A win at West Bromwich Albion ensures safety. If Hull lose, Luton stay up regardless. If Hull avoid defeat, Luton need to match their result or better Preston or Derby’s result. If Hull, Preston, and Derby all win, Luton must win to avoid dropping below Stoke. Rare scenarios (e.g., Stoke losing by 6+ goals) could allow a draw to suffice.

Preston North End (20th, 49 points, -11 GD): A win at Bristol City (a tough ask given Bristol’s play-off chase) guarantees survival. If Hull fail to win, Preston might stay up without a victory. They need to match or better Hull or Luton’s result, or outperform Derby or Stoke.

Derby County (19th, 50 points, -7 GD): A win against Stoke at home secures their Championship status. If Hull lose, Derby are safe regardless. If Hull win and Derby don’t, they must match Luton or Preston’s result. Derby’s superior goal difference helps, but unlikely scenarios (e.g., losing by 3+ goals with specific results elsewhere) could see them drop.

Stoke City (18th, 51 points, -12 GD): Stoke stay up with a draw or win at Derby. If they lose by fewer than five goals, they’re only relegated if Luton and Hull win and Preston get at least a draw. Unlikely outcomes (e.g., losing by 6+ goals or specific high-scoring draws) could see them drop.

Key Matches to Watch

Plymouth vs. Leeds: Leeds aim to clinch the title; Plymouth need a miracle.

Burnley vs. Millwall: Burnley chase the title, Millwall a play-off spot.

Coventry vs. Middlesbrough: A direct play-off battle.

Bristol City vs. Preston: Play-offs vs. relegation survival.

Derby vs. Stoke: A relegation six-pointer.

Portsmouth vs. Hull: Hull’s survival hopes hinge on this.

West Brom vs. Luton: Luton’s chance to secure safety.